Myths of the Afghanistan exodus

columnist

• Biden owns the chaos in Kabul, especially at the airport. Nonsense. An upheaval of such a magnitude was bound to produce some chaos- as is happening with the present storm in New Orleans and its previous one, Katrina that devastated the city, or the fires in Australia. A week after it began the air-lift was humming along with a packed plane taking off every 40 minutes. The militaries of the US, the UK and other Nato members have carried out a brilliantly organised feat, despite a massive bombing incident and the photos of a giant C.130 Hercules aircraft manoeuvring to take off with men jumping onto its wing and climbing inside the under carriage. That happened once. But that was the lead story. As cynical newsmen say, “If it bleeds, it leads”. When will the journalistic community ever learn?

• Hasn’t the West lost its leverage on a Taliban government? Not at all. In moving from being insurgents to running a government is not easy. The Taliban will know they need all the help they can get, beginning with diplomatic recognition that will enable them to take a seat in the UN and be eligible for World Bank and IMF aid. Bilateral aid from the US and its allies would and should be forthcoming. In the words of ex secretary of state, Colin Powell, “ As in a china and pottery shop, if you break it you own it”. The US eventually learnt to be generous with victorious Vietnam after a long war that ended in defeat. But it took a while to bury the hatchet, until President Jimmy Carter came along. Then the restrictions on trade, foreign investment etc. were removed, Vietnam became capitalist and boomed and now leans westwards on many issues.

• Will the US ever learn? Hopefully yes, by maybe not. It learnt the dangers of invading a country about which it knew very little with Vietnam. After its defeat a majority of Americans said, “never again”. But then a generation passed and memories faded. The lessons to be learnt evaporated. Bush and Blair went to war with Iraq. The end result was to demolish a country that before had good educational and health systems and a low crime rate. Also the war spread the influence of ISIS, an ultra- violent Islamic group. Then, a few years later, followed the destructive intervention in Libya which ended up even worse than Iraq- loss of stability, armed factionalism, gruesome fighting, chaos and the spread of warlordism. The “never ending” wars started to become anathema to a majority of Americans. Obama, facing the dangers of the civil war in Syria overspilling its boundaries, wisely decided not to intervene, despite congressional and media pressure. Trump and Biden have grabbed Obama’s post-Libya baton and run in the same direction.

• Can Biden make the US into a peaceful nation? Hard, when the country has rarely not been fighting a war somewhere. The military tradition runs deep. People in Washington are saying that Biden wants to turn his attention to standing up to China, both economically and politically. Surely he’s not going to pick a fight? Obama started this confrontation, Trump stepped it up, and the Biden camp talks of being even tougher. Don’t do it, Mr Biden! The US has a population of 328 million, China’s is 1,4 billion. The US is outnumbered more than 4 to 1. In the long run it cannot win a military confrontation however superior in arms it is. It is better to make peace now voluntarily than to be forced to in ten or twenty years’ time. The two leaders have to sit down in a locked room and only be allowed to emerge when they have forged a consensus on the rules of the road. What both sides need is a Confucian commitment to seeking harmony. Then the boats will rise for both sides. Biden has to run to China not run away from it, as in Afghanistan.

Myths of the Afghanistan exodus

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