CEOs cautious as global shocks test Tanzania’s growth outlook

Despite global headwinds, confidence in the domestic economy remains firm.

IMF resident representative for Tanzania, Mr Sebastian Acevedo, said growth is expected to remain strong at around six percent, supported by stable fundamentals and commodity performance.

“There’s still a lot of uncertainty… but we are working under the assumption that disruptions will be short-term and temporary,” he said, adding that Tanzania is “not going to be immune,” but remains on a positive trajectory.

Corporate leaders, however, acknowledged that the global environment has become more complex, particularly with rising fuel prices and supply chain disruptions.

Oryx Gas Tanzania Managing Director, Mr Araman Benoit, said energy markets are increasingly influenced by geopolitical dynamics rather than traditional fundamentals.

“The big effect is of course the price… gasoline has increased a lot, jet fuel has doubled, and freight premiums have gone through the roof,” he said.

He noted that businesses are now operating in a context where volatility is amplified by global conflict and speculative trading.

“A lot of parties have more interest in developing an economy of war rather than an economy of peace,” Mr Benoit said, warning that such dynamics are likely to sustain upward pressure on costs and logistics.

As a result, companies are becoming more deliberate in how they deploy capital. PwC Tanzania country senior partner, Ms Zainab Msimbe, said firms are not retreating from growth but are taking a more measured approach to investment decisions.

“This optimism is not shifting to pessimism, but it is leading to more cautious decision-making,” she said, noting that many companies are prioritizing liquidity and risk management. According to Ms Msimbe, a growing number of firms are slowing large-scale investments while strengthening their financial positions.

“Around a quarter are already speaking about a slowdown in large investments, with a focus on ensuring sufficient cash,” she said, adding that executives are increasingly focused on navigating immediate challenges.

That shift is also reshaping strategic priorities, with more firms turning to regional markets as a source of growth.

“Over 50 percent are exploring new markets within the region,” Ms Msimbe said, citing Kenya, Uganda and South Africa as key destinations. Partnerships and collaboration, she added, are becoming central to expansion strategies in an uncertain global environment.

For industry leaders, the current volatility underscores the importance of balancing long-term vision with operational agility.

Knauf East Africa CEO, Mr Christoforos Stamoulakatos, said companies must rethink how they approach risk and opportunity in a world where disruptions are becoming the norm rather than the exception.

“The safest shield is the long-term strategy, and the second thing is the agility to operate day-to-day,” he said, arguing that traditional planning cycles are increasingly inadequate in a rapidly shifting environment.

He emphasized the need for organizations to continuously reassess assumptions and remain flexible in execution. At the operational level, firms are also reinforcing core business fundamentals to withstand shocks.

“We don’t take for granted that we will get supplies on time, in full, and at the price we budgeted,” Mr Stamoulakatos said, pointing to ongoing supply chain disruptions and cost pressures. Even so, business leaders stressed that Tanzania’s long-term prospects remain intact, provided the country continues to strengthen its economic foundations.

Mr Acevedo highlighted the need for greater investment in human capital and a more enabling environment for private sector growth.

“Tanzania has a very young and rapidly growing population, and if you don’t train them properly… they will not be able to integrate productively into the job market,” he said, calling for policies that support skills development and job creation.

As global uncertainty persists, the consensus among CEOs is clear: growth opportunities remain, but success will depend on disciplined execution, strategic flexibility and the ability to navigate an increasingly unpredictable world.