CCM defectors: Pre-election gain or huge gamble for opposition parties?

In the past decade, three strikingly similar episodes have unfolded. In 2015, Edward Lowassa, then a long-serving CCM stalwart and former Prime Minister, left the ruling party after being blocked from contesting its presidential nomination.

His defection to Chadema and his immediate elevation to the presidential candidacy of the opposition coalition Ukawa, transformed the political atmosphere ahead of that year’s general election. His entry galvanised the opposition coalition and helped it secure an unprecedented share of the national vote, around 40 percent, while significantly increasing its parliamentary representation.

Five years later, in 2020, Bernard Membe, once CCM’s foreign minister, was expelled from the party after internal disputes and within months was announced as ACT-Wazalendo’s presidential contender.

Now, in 2025, the script has repeated itself with former Minister for Livestock and Fisheries and former Kisesa constituency MP, Luhaga Mpina, who crossed to ACT-Wazalendo just days after being dropped from CCM’s parliamentary aspirant shortlist and was promptly named the party’s presidential flag-bearer.

For opposition supporters, the appeal is obvious: a high-profile defector arrives with political clout, name recognition and organisational networks that can be difficult to cultivate from within.

For CCM, it can be a sign of internal cracks but also an opportunity to portray defectors as opportunists who could not withstand the ruling party’s competitive nomination process.

A political analyst from the University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Richard Mbunda, says the sweet part of these defections is easy to see.

“Defectors of such stature come with instant political capital. In 2015, Lowassa’s move to Chadema helped the opposition achieve historic results, around 40 percent of the presidential vote and a record number of parliamentary seats. That kind of momentum cannot be underestimated. It can also energise the grassroots and bring in resources the party did not previously have,” he told The Citizen yesterday.

According to him, indeed, Lowassa’s candidacy not only closed the gap with CCM in the national vote but also boosted the opposition’s parliamentary presence and control of several local authorities.

Analysts agree that without him, the opposition’s 2015 performance would likely have been far more modest.

A political scientist and lecturer at the University of Dodoma Dr Paul Loisulie believes such defectors bring more than votes.

“They often attract other leaders to follow them, regional chairs, MPs, councillors and that widens the party’s influence beyond its traditional strongholds. Their stature and connections can alter the political map in ways a party might otherwise struggle to achieve in a short time,” he explained.

But beneath the sweet surface lies a bitter after-taste. History has shown that many of these defectors eventually find their way back to CCM, leaving the parties that once championed them facing both political and reputational losses.

Lowassa returned to CCM in 2019, four years after his dramatic defection. Membe also rejoined the ruling party in 2022 after his unsuccessful run with ACT-Wazalendo in 2020.

For Prof Makame Ali Ussi of the State University of Zanzibar, this revolving door of loyalty is the bitter taste in what may first seem like a delicious political deal.

“When these individuals leave, they do not leave behind the strategic knowledge they gained. They take with them an understanding of the party’s internal workings, its strategies, its vulnerabilities. This poses a security dilemma for the party that had embraced them, especially if they later return to their original political home,” he said.

The speed with which such defectors are handed a presidential ticket also raises questions about internal party democracy.

Critics argue that long-serving members, who have laboured for years without being considered for such a role, may feel overlooked in favour of political celebrities whose commitment to the party’s ideology remains untested.

Another analyst from UDSM, Dr Onesmo Kyauke notes that the mere possession of a party membership card does not equate to deep loyalty.

“Trust in politics is built over time,” he stressed and continued: “A new entrant, no matter how prominent, needs to demonstrate a consistent commitment to the party’s cause before being entrusted with its most sensitive responsibilities. Otherwise, the party risks investing heavily in someone whose allegiance is not firmly anchored.”

This caution is echoed by Dr Revocatus Kabobe from the Open University of Tanzania, who views the phenomenon as a symptom of personality-driven politics.

“When electoral strategy is reduced to finding the biggest name available rather than building a coherent ideological base, instability is inevitable. A party may win in the short term, but the long-term risks are substantial, especially if the individual’s loyalties remain fluid,” he said.