How M23 rebels lost battle in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Dar es Salaam/Goma. On December 18, last year, the M23 military leader, Brigadier General Sultan Emanuel Makenga, vowed to fight the Southern Africa Development Community soldiers dispatched in war torn Eastern Congo as ‘Intervention Brigade’ working under the umbrella of UN peacekeepers known in its French acronym as MONUSCO.

Asked by The Citizen’s Managing Editor in his military base located about 40km outside the town of Goma on what would be his plan should the Uganda’s peace talks collapse, Makenga responded, “ if the Kampala peace talks fail, the only option we have is to fight till the last man.”

When he was further asked whether his force was willing to engage the proposed SADC intervention Brigade formed by among others, Tanzania, and South African soldiers, Makenga maintained that he would fight till the last man.

As Congolese rebels, M23, loses its military capacity to fight the rogue Democratic Republic of Congo’s national army known in its French acronym is FARDC, which is backed by United Nations Intervention Brigade formed by Tanzania and South African soldiers, the big question is what next for the war torn nation and the decimated rebels.

Though British Broadcasting Corporation(BBC) reported yesterday that fresh fighting has erupted in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo as government forces try to clear the last areas held by M23 rebels, The Citizen has reliably established that the Congolese rebels faces a bleak future.

Nearly a year after Makenga’s vows, things are falling apart for M23 rebels as the Congolese forces being backed by a strong UN intervention Brigade destroy the rebel’s last stronghold near the Congo-Uganda border.

Though the M23 on Sunday called a ceasefire to pave way for the Kampala peace talks to resume, until Monday morning, there was no sign of a ceasefire that took place, casting doubt on what would be the future of Congo.

According to the BBC Africa security correspondent Moses Rono, the imminent defeat of DR Congo’s M23 rebels is the result of shifting military and political dynamics that present the most concrete prospects of peace in the unstable central African nation.

Its defeat would send an intimidating message to at least 10 other rebel groups operating in the area, raising hopes that a lasting peace for the mineral-rich nation may finally be in sight, reports Rono.

The M23 rebels were rooted out of its main bases by DR Congo’s army, a force generally known for its indiscipline, inefficiency and corruption. When the M23 took control of Goma in November 2012 it embarrassed the government and put pressure on the international community after human rights violations emerged.

By yesterday evening, a senior official within the command circles said the Congolese army had “completely conquered” the Mbuzi hilltop, as fighting raged in the mountainous region where rebels holed up after being forced from their last stronghold of Bunagana last week.

“We are attacking Chanzu and Mbuzi and then Runyoni,” an army officer told AFP earlier, referring to the three hilltops, at about 2,000 metres (6,500 feet) altitude, where dozens of holdout rebels have dug in. “We can’t stop...there are only a few hills left to conquer,” he added.

Meanwhile, leaders from the 15-country Southern Africa Development Community (Sadc) and some of Congo’s neighbours in Pretoria were yesterday set to meet in South Africa to discuss the next steps for a major peacekeeping mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo

According to the Executive Director of the Pretoria-based African Public Policy and Research Institute Mr Martin Rupiya, the meeting looks like a final coordinating meeting between Sadc and Great Lakes countries.

“They think M23 is on the rocks,” says Rupiya, “the main agenda is to finish off, as it were, backers of the M23”, Rupia told the French news agency AFP

Speaking to the news agency, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, a non-profit research organisation Trevor Maisiri affirmed that there is a lot of anticipation, especially among SADC and the Great Lake region that M23 is on the back foot

However, he cautioned that although they’re going to be a lot of shouting from the rooftops about the end of the M23, it is possible to see other eruptions just a few weeks down the line, adding that the M23 rebels represent just one of many armed, rebellious groups in the region.

“As much as defeating M23 is a significant event, I don’t know how much it will help secure stability as there are other groups in the region,” he said, “all we are saying is we need to be cautious”, warned Maisiri

President Joseph Kabila made changes to the military hierarchy and troops fighting in the east. The rebels briefly occupied the eastern Congolese city of Goma in November 2012 before pulling out under international pressure. Government forces have been backed by a UN intervention brigade deployed earlier this year to confront the M23 and other armed groups.

By losing its territories in Eastern Congo, it means the M23 military leader can’t access his financial sources that previously earned him millions of dollars, which he then used to pay soldiers as well as buy more weapons.

When The Citizen’s Managing Editor asked Makenga about how much money he had during the mutiny, he confidently responded: “We had enough dollars to pay salaries … this money came from our supporters inside and outside the Congo … but we had business plans to raise more money to finance our operations.”

And, the business plan was to introduce taxes to all trucks that entered their territory as well as to all businesspeople who trade there -- a move which by October, last year, was earning Makenga and his troops an estimated $10,000 a day --- enough to create havoc to the Congolese regime.

But that wasn’t it: Makenga and his team had a network of mineral dealers using Kampala and Kigali cities to transact their businesses during and post integration; he didn’t disclose how much this network contributed to their organization.

With illegal minerals and charcoal trade estimated at $57 million changing hands yearly between Makenga, Ntanganda and dozens of top Congolese national army officers, financing the rebellion was simplified.

For the 23 years that Brigadier General Makenga fought the war in his native Congo and partly in Rwanda, he spent most of this time fighting in the Kivu Province, giving him connection within and outside the region as well as ‘knowledge on financing rebellion.’

Having joined the army at the age of 17 about 23 years ago when he was recruited as a Rwandese Patriotic Army (RPA) fighter in Uganda, Makenga who until February, last year, was just a colonel within the Congolese army, earned experience as a guerilla fighter in the Eastern DRC.

His fight, he claims, was inspired by historical injustices committed against his people, the Banyamulenge community, who according to documented evidence suffered the brutality and politics of exclusions dating back from colonial times and right into the Mobutu and Kabila regimes.

In November 2010, the UN group of experts revealed how the Congolese national army and rebels were making millions of dollars from illegal mining business at Bisie Mine in Eastern Congo, all estimated at an annual $29 million.

Fifteen months before the M23 rebellion, Makenga was the leader of Congolese army in Eastern DRC, following the Nairobi Peace accord of March 23, meaning he had access to illicit millions of dollars that he used to recruit soldiers and shopping for weapons.

It’s this money that he used to bankroll his rebellion against the Congolese government between 2012 and 2013.

But, by being defeated, Makenga has nowhere to call a territory meaning he can’t tax traders as well as conducting illegal minerals, charcoal and timber business valued at $57 million in 2011.

Not only that but also a defeat means losing morale among M23 soldiers, a situation that has also contributed to major defection during the past few months.

At the beginning of his rebellion early last year, Makenga had a well-equipped soldiers estimated to be 850, but the number grew to about 2500 soldiers by the end 2012 following the dramatic capture of Goma city.

Last week the UN claimed that M23 has been decimated heavily and, left with only 200 die-hard soldiers mainly special force tasked to protect Makenga and some elites within the organization.

The Citizen has reliably established that one of the reasons the rebels suffered the defeat was its inability to fight convention war, which has been staged by UN intervention Brigade and Congolese national army.

“I think their(M23) plan is to embark on guerilla tactics because so far they have proved to be incapable of fighting the Congolese army which is backed by UN intervention Brigade.” A senior military officer from Rwanda who declined to be named told the Citizen

The officer added, “This may be a total defeat to M23 or just a strategy to buy time while planning a guerilla war, which is something they are capable of fighting.”

But, the internal divisions and wrangles within the M23 between Makenga and his former boss, General Jean Bosco Ntaganda, that led the latter to surrender to The Hague based court, ICC, also weakened the organization heavily.

According to details gathered by the Citizen, the fight between the two rivals within M23 caused the defection of over 300 soldiers loyal to Ntaganda who fled to Rwanda.

What next in Congo?

Following the M23 defeat, the big question that now lingers in the minds of Congolese who have witnessed a war for over sixteen years, which caused 5 million deaths in eastern Congo, is what next?

With about a dozen rebel factions operating in the resource-rich Eastern Congo, will this be the beginning of a lasting peace for the country that has lost about 5million souls during the past decade or just a temporary pause before another rebellion rock the war-torn country?

There’s still Forces for Democratic Liberation of Rwanda(FDLR), which rose from the ashes of the 1994 Genocide perpetrators to form a strong Hutus extremist army, thanks to the free handout and safe heaven provided by the United Nations High Commission for Refugees in Eastern Province of Congo’s Kivu Province.

The organisation has remained active in the Eastern part of DRC, raising money through illegal mining deals as well as taxing locals a special liberation tax.

The 2010 UN report says that armed groups, in particular the FDLR, earn close to $50 million of revenues each year from the trade which therefore represents one of the most significant avenues of their direct financing. FDLR use part of this money to bankroll its military operations in Eastern Congo.

The question is whether the attention by Congolese national army backed with UN forces would shift their attention to remaining other rebel factions like FDLR, Mai Mai and many more, which have rocked Eastern Congo for years.