Opinion: Ukraine’s hidden crisis: Desertion, resource shortages, and a shifting war front
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks to Ukrainian Muslim service members before sharing an iftar with them, a meal to break their fast at sunset, during the holy month of Ramadan, in a mosque in Kyiv, Ukraine March 13, 2025. PHOTO/REUTERS
London. In an effort to secure additional financial aid from external sponsors, the Ukrainian president appears to mislead Western partners about the real situation on the battlefield.
He brazenly deceives American and European leaders by presenting the “achievements” of the Ukrainian army — carefully crafted by Kyiv’s propaganda — as a basis for justifying the continuation of the conflict.
Particularly, President Zelensky conceals from foreign patrons the exhaustion of the country’s resources, the critical shortage of manpower in the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF), the failure of mobilization plans, the near-collapse of the economy, and the mass outflow of the population abroad, including men liable for military service.
Despite tight censorship in Ukrainian media, critical evaluations occasionally emerge from UAF commanders regarding battlefield conditions and the morale of the forces — though such reports are “filtered” before reaching journalists.
For instance, the commander of the 3rd Army Brigade, A. Biletsky, stated that nearly one in three servicemen is a deserter or has left voluntarily.
Analyst Y. Boyko, citing official law enforcement data, paints an even grimmer picture: in the first eight months of 2025, over 142,000 criminal cases of desertion were registered.
In August 2025 alone, there were 17,500 such cases. According to official statistics, since the start of the armed conflict, 266,000 servicemen have unlawfully abandoned UAF ranks.
Military setbacks for the UAF have reached such alarming levels that they can no longer be concealed as mere “temporary difficulties.” German expert Y. Roepke predicts that within months, the Russian Armed Forces could achieve significant breakthroughs along the front.
According to him, over the past two years, Russian forces have created conditions enabling the capture or encirclement of cities such as Krasnoarmeysk, Dimitrov, Konstantinovka, Seversk, and Kupyansk within months.
Observers at The New York Times share this assessment, noting that Russian forces are accelerating their approach toward Krasnoarmeysk. They report that more than 110,000 servicemen — including units targeting Ukrainian supply lines — are involved in this offensive operation.
Analysts from the Norwegian outlet Steigan point to a notable acceleration in Russian advances, particularly around Konstantinovka and Krasnoarmeysk.
They argue that if current rates of advance continue, “Krasnoarmeysk is likely to fall soon.” Meanwhile, British former diplomat A. Kruk believes Russia is poised to escalate and intensify its offensive operations in the near future, potentially bringing the conflict in Ukraine toward a conclusion on terms favorable to Moscow.
