Samia called for African carbon equity. A rules gap is making that harder

By Fatuma Mwangi        

In February 2026, AUDA-NEPAD launched a set of African Principles for Equity and Integrity in Carbon Markets, endorsed by Tanzania's President Samia Suluhu Hassan among others – a continental commitment to participation in global carbon markets on terms that reflect sovereignty, protect communities, and align with the Paris Agreement.

Four months later, a ruling by ICAO has demonstrated that the international rules governing the world's largest compliance market do not yet reflect those principles.

The ruling – reported by Carbon Pulse and Quantum Commodity Intelligence - concerns Zimbabwe, which completed every step Article 6 requires: government authorisation, national registry transfer, corresponding adjustment against its own climate target.

ICAO's CORSIA scheme ruled those credits ineligible because they had moved through a sovereign national registry rather than an approved private standard.

A registry that complies with the Paris Agreement, in other words, does not automatically qualify for CORSIA.

For Tanzania, this is not a passive observation. With one of the largest forest carbon pipelines on the continent, Tanzania's REDD+ commitments and NDC targets depend on revenues delivered through processes the host government controls.

The Zimbabwe ruling poses a direct question for Dar es Salaam: if Tanzania builds out its sovereign carbon governance framework in full Paris Agreement compliance, will CORSIA recognise it?

The price the market charges for compliance

The financial stakes are concrete. Credits that have completed the full sovereign compliance pathway currently trade at approximately $3 per tonne on the compliance market; credits on approved private standards trade at approximately $17. The $14 gap is not a reflection of quality or environmental integrity – it reflects CORSIA's technical preference for credits that remain on private platforms over those that have moved through national registries. The sovereign pathway attracts a discount. Tanzania's forest carbon, priced accordingly, delivers less to the state, less to communities, and less to the conservation outcomes those revenues are meant to fund.

Some analysts propose "mirroring" – national registries that reflect transactions on approved private platforms rather than physically holding credits – as a practical fix. It satisfies CORSIA's chain of custody requirement without triggering the registry transfer issue that Zimbabwe faces.

But mirroring accommodates a structural problem rather than resolving it. A country whose registry mirrors Verra's platform observes its carbon assets; it does not control them. For a

 government that has publicly committed to the AUDA-NEPAD principles, whether that is an acceptable long-term arrangement deserves a direct answer.

Tanzania’s forest pipeline and what is at stake

Tanzania's forests cover approximately 48 million hectares and its REDD+ programme has been active since 2008. Most credits from its large-scale forest carbon projects move through private standards without sovereign authorisation – not because the government is disengaged, but because its Article 6 authorisation process is still being developed. Readiness and completion are not the same thing, and the gap between them is precisely where the Zimbabwe problem lives.

Developers in Tanzania are watching closely. "Every developer building toward the sovereign pathway is reassessing their timeline," said one source active in the market. "If Zimbabwe is the outcome of doing everything right, that changes the calculation."

This is not a developer-versus-government conflict – both lose when the sovereign pathway is penalised. The developer loses the premium; the government loses the revenue and credibility that sovereign control was meant to deliver.

The AUDA-NEPAD principles need a mechanism

The AUDA-NEPAD principles President Samia endorsed in February assert exactly what the Zimbabwe ruling violated: sovereign authority over carbon assets, fair community benefit shares, and international rules aligned with the Paris Agreement. The question now is whether African governments will take those principles from a joint declaration into a formal diplomatic position at the bodies where rules are actually made.

The 238th ICAO Council session opens on 17 June. Tanzania — with presidential-level endorsement of African carbon equity principles and one of the continent's largest forest carbon pipelines — has both the standing and the self-interest to formally register the disconnect between CORSIA's registry requirements and the Paris Agreement's sovereign pathway.

Doing so alongside Nigeria, Ghana, Zimbabwe, and others would turn the AUDA-NEPAD principles into something the market cannot ignore: a coordinated African position at the table where the rules are set.

Continental principles without rule alignment are an aspiration. Tanzania's forests are too valuable, and the window before CORSIA fully matures too short, to leave it at that.

About the Author

Fatuma Mwangi is a Dar es Salaam-based journalist covering environmental governance, conservation finance, and East Africa’s emerging carbon economy.