The ‘ugali’ ceiling: Why Tanzania’s maize boom feeds

Tanzania has surged to become Africa’s second-largest maize producer, trailing only South Africa’s estimated 15 million tonnes. Government figures place our 2024-2025 output at 11.7 million tonnes, with an ambitious target of 15 million by next year. While independent reports vary, the consensus confirms a powerful upward trajectory.

So, what’s driving this growth? The government says it’s down to fertiliser subsidies rolled out in August 2022. That could be true — Tanzania applies a mere 15kg of fertiliser per acre, dwarfed by South Africa’s 50kg. Reaching our new benchmark of 24kg per acre promises even greater yields. Still, concrete evidence linking subsidies directly to increased harvests remains elusive. Correlation, after all, is not causation.