Prime
Why a Russian victory in Ukraine is bad news for Africa
What you need to know:
- Many in Africa still dream of post-Western justice. But the erosion of the rules-based order doesn’t create justice; it creates a vacuum where the most ruthless thrive.
This week’s diplomatic theatre in Alaska—Donald Trump meeting Vladimir Putin, where Putin spoke in English before being ushered into an American presidential limousine—was not just a photo-op. It was a visual argument: that the fates of nations can be discussed, adjusted, and normalised in the back seat of a car. The scene carried a frightening suggestion that bargaining chips can include entire countries.
Ukraine was on the agenda this time. The meeting aimed to create a pathway to end the war. The timing reflected political calculations in Washington alongside a Russian campaign that has hardened its bargaining position after consolidating gains. But the summit delivered no ceasefire and no binding commitment to restore borders. It simply pushed the hardest questions into a later act.
Putin’s demands are stark. Kyiv must accept that the 1991 borders cannot be restored: Crimea and the Donbas regions will be treated as irreversible fait accompli. Moreover, Ukraine must be barred from NATO, must be demilitarised, and subjected to “denazification”—a euphemism for regime change in Kyiv. In short, Putin aims to make Ukraine a client state.
Trump appears driven by a transactional pragmatism. Without American boots on the ground, any negotiated settlement will be spun as a success in the US. The problem is the moral inversion of his proposal: instead of forcing the invader to withdraw, the invaded are pressured to cede. This is not diplomacy; it is armed robbery followed by a negotiation over how much the victim gets to keep.
Forget the simplistic East vs West narrative. We are witnessing the rewriting of the global operating system. If this stands, might makes right. Any powerful nation can take what it wants by force, and then write it into their constitution as they wait for the world to tire.
By this new logic, territorial disputes are no longer legal matters but tests of strength. Ethiopia. The DRC. The Sahel. Southeast Asia. Every unresolved border becomes a potential conflict zone, ripe for manipulation by big powers. We regress to a world of suzerainties: you are either inside a sphere of influence, or you are the battlefield where rivals settle scores.
This is a particular catastrophe for Africa. Today, conquest doesn’t require tanks and missiles. It can be achieved with Wagner-style mercenaries propping up juntas. With weaponised food scarcity. Via cyber-attacks that cripple infrastructure. Using cheap drones to inflict immense damage.
Many in Africa still dream of post-Western justice. But the erosion of the rules-based order doesn’t create justice; it creates a vacuum where the most ruthless thrive. This isn’t resistance to Western hegemony so much as the construction of a more brutal, amoral system. A Ukrainian collapse isn’t a blow to a distant American empire; it is the demolition of the very floor upon which the statehood of vulnerable nations is built.
There is, however, a glimmer of hope. While outrightly defeating Russia militarily remains improbable, Russia can be bled dry politically and morally. History shows that great powers are defeated by unsustainable costs. The USSR bled out in Afghanistan. America’s wars in Vietnam and Iraq collapsed under their weight. The goal is to make aggression unprofitable. To achieve this, Ukraine must not be allowed to lose. Support must ensure that the occupation remains a costly and futile effort.
Ukraine has already shown it can do this. In Washington, Volodymyr Zelensky displayed a map revealing that over 1,000 days, Russia has captured only one percent of Ukraine’s territory. Despite the ominous Oreshnik rhetoric and brutal weaponry, Russia’s advance is measured in meters per day. The point is that Ukraine can defend its soil and, given the right resources, hold the line.
The question now is: who can outlast whom? The West is soft, and Putin believes it will tire. Europe has shown solidarity, but without sustained American resolve, the balance could tilt. Trump’s musing about ceding Crimea underlines that risk.
For our sake, Ukraine must not fall. We cannot allow a return to a 19th-century imperial model. We cannot allow every border drawn by colonial cartographers to be reopened for renegotiation—this time, at gunpoint.
For nations rich in resources but struggling with governance, the threat is existential. Why would a foreign power bother with complex investments when it can simply sponsor a separatist movement in your mineral-rich region, deploy a proxy force, and create a frozen conflict under its control? The precedent is set: The Donbas model is a franchise, ready for export.
By siding with Russia, nations of the Global South are not choosing a new master; they are celebrating the end of the very idea of rules that could ever protect them. The victory they tacitly endorse is not their liberation, but the blueprint for their future subjugation. They are not breaking their chains. They are forging new, far stronger ones.
Charles Makakala is a Technology and Management Consultant based in Dar es Salaam
