South Africa takes first steps to explore Africa’s maiden green shipping corridor

“What’s unfolding between Saldanha and Rotterdam could reshape Africa’s place in global trade,” according to Dr Thandi Karl, a maritime economist at the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies. “It’s not just about cleaner fuels, it’s about positioning African industry in a low-carbon future.”

South Africa is conducting feasibility studies to launch ammonia-powered iron ore carriers between Saldanha Bay and Rotterdam by 2029, setting the stage for Africa’s first green shipping corridor.

If successful, it would make South Africa a test case for zero-emission maritime trade between the Global South and Europe.

The new study by the Global Maritime Forum and the Rocky Mountain Institute finds that the Saldanha–Rotterdam iron ore corridor could achieve full decarbonisation by 2035.

The analysis, developed with input from Anglo American, CMB.TECH, Freeport Saldanha, VUKA Marine, and ENGIE, identifies a technically and commercially viable route toward zero-emission shipping, provided that policy, port infrastructure, and business partnerships move in step.

“This phased approach gives shipowners and fuel producers a clear timeline to work toward,” said Shanon Neumann, Associate for Investment Facilitation at Freeport Saldanha.

“But to help Saldanha Bay transition quickly, blending public and private funding is critical to unlock infrastructure investment and reduce the risks of early projects.”

Almost all of South Africa’s iron ore exports, around 96 percent, or roughly 30–32 million tonnes annually, move through Saldanha Bay, making it one of the world’s major bulk ports and the continent's largest iron ore export terminal.

In 2023, the Netherlands received about 8.3 million tonnes, about a quarter of all South African iron ore exports, underlining Rotterdam’s strategic role as Europe’s anchor for a future green corridor.

The corridor offers more than compliance with tightening global fuel standards. It could serve as the backbone of a domestic hydrogen economy, linking South Africa’s renewable energy potential to Europe’s growing demand for clean industrial inputs.

The World Bank and the World Economic Forum have both identified South Africa as a potential key player in global shipping decarbonisation, and this project could prove this.

By 2035, the corridor could require between 89 and 350 kilotonnes of green ammonia annually, depending on ship conversion rates.

A mid-range estimate of 147 kilotonnes would position it as a core driver of South Africa’s hydrogen industry, stimulating investment in renewables, electrolyser manufacturing, and ammonia storage facilities in the Western Cape.

Ammonia-fuelled bulk carriers are expected to be commercially available by 2028, paving the way for the first voyage a year later.

Under a high-demand scenario, the corridor could host up to 22 ammonia-powered voyages per year by 2035. With coordinated policies, the first zero-emission shipment could sail before 2030.

The cost challenge remains formidable. Green ammonia currently costs two to three times more than conventional heavy fuel oil, raising a vessel’s lifetime expense from roughly $236 million to as high as $452 million.

However, Europe’s Emissions Trading System and FuelEU Maritime regulations, both fully in force by 2026, are expected to narrow the cost gap by about 60 percent.

If carbon prices rise and technology costs fall as projected, green ammonia could achieve cost parity with fossil fuels by 2035.

In the early years, bunkering operations are expected to take place in Rotterdam, where ammonia-handling standards and infrastructure are already well advanced.

Saldanha Bay, meanwhile, is developing its capacity to become the corridor’s long-term green ammonia production and refuelling hub.

The study estimates local production costs at around $2,740 per tonne, higher than imports from Texas ($1,820–2,000), but domestic output could become competitive as renewable power and logistics improve.

“Regional and global regulations are creating the conditions for this corridor,” noted Marieke Beckmann, Deputy Director for Decarbonisation at the Global Maritime Forum.

“But with binding international rules delayed, national and local governments now have a crucial role in incentivising scalable zero-emission fuels.

This, combined with EU measures, can help position South Africa as a competitive clean-fuel supplier.”

Across Africa, similar ambitions are taking shape. Namibia’s Hyphen and Enertrag-backed projects in the Erongo and Tsau-Khaeb regions aim to deliver gigawatt-scale renewables and multi-million-tonne green ammonia exports.

Morocco has approved over $30 billion worth of hydrogen and ammonia investments, while Egypt’s Ain Sokhna projects, backed by Scatec and EDF, are targeting ammonia for export and for ships transiting the Suez Canal.

In West Africa, Mauritania’s large-scale hydrogen and ammonia ventures are also gathering pace. Collectively, these efforts point to a network of African green-fuel hubs poised to power regional and international shipping routes.

Momentum is also building at home. The Saldanha Bay Special Economic Zone is already hosting early hydrogen and ammonia projects involving Freeport Saldanha, ENGIE, and local utilities.

Together with emerging projects in Boegoebaai and Namibia’s Erongo region, these could surpass 700 kilotonnes of annual production by 2035, enough to meet corridor demand and support local industries.

Still, several hurdles remain. “The biggest challenge is coordination,” said Dr. Karl. “Shipowners face the bulk of upfront costs, but miners and buyers are the ones who benefit from lower carbon footprints.

Without long-term purchase agreements, producers can’t reach final investment decisions.” The study calls for joint ventures and shared-risk models to make the project financially viable.

Regulatory clarity is another priority. “South Africa needs clear rules on ammonia handling and faster port permitting,” Dr. Karl added. “If we wait for international consensus, other regions will capture the market.”

Technically, ammonia-fuelled shipping is feasible; economically, it needs policy and financing innovation to scale.

The report identifies three urgent actions: formal recognition of ammonia as a marine fuel, long-term contracts between miners, shipowners, and producers to guarantee demand, and blended financing from institutions such as the European Investment Bank to reduce capital costs.

If implemented, the South Africa–Europe Iron Ore Green Corridor could become a model for equitable and commercially viable zero-emission trade.

It would strengthen South Africa’s export competitiveness, future-proof a key port, and anchor a new hydrogen-driven industrial base, advancing both the country’s Just Energy Transition and its role in the global clean economy.

“If realised, the Saldanha–Rotterdam corridor would redefine South Africa’s maritime role,” said Dr Karl. “The country wouldn’t just export minerals, it would export clean fuel, technology, and credibility, linking Africa’s energy resources to Europe’s decarbonising markets.”