Dar es Salaam. Climate change could lead to an additional 123 million malaria cases and 532,000 deaths across Africa by 2050, according to a study published in the journal Nature.
The study, titled Projected impacts of climate change on malaria in Africa, involved researchers from Tanzania’s Ifakara Health Institute and Curtin University in Australia.
The researchers warn that extreme weather events, rather than rising temperatures alone, are likely to pose the greatest challenge to malaria control efforts.
Led by Tasmin Symons and senior author Peter Gething, the team used a geotemporal model combining 25 years of African data on climate patterns, malaria burden and socioeconomic conditions.
The analysis was based on climate projections covering the period between 2024 and 2050 under a moderate emissions scenario.
Researchers also conducted 34 interviews with officials from humanitarian agencies and national malaria programmes, many of whom reported that floods and cyclones often destroy health facilities and disrupt access to medicines.
According to the study, 79 percent of the projected increase in malaria cases and 93 percent of additional deaths would result from disruptions caused by extreme weather events.
Interrupted access to antimalarial treatment was identified as the largest single factor, accounting for 37.8 percent of the projected increase.
The study also found that while rising temperatures could reduce malaria transmission in some parts of the Sahel, they may increase risks in highland regions, including areas around the African Great Lakes.
These include Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and parts of Tanzania, where warmer conditions could create new habitats for malaria-carrying mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasite.
The researchers called for stronger investment in climate-resilient health systems, improved supply chains and better early warning systems for extreme weather events.
They also recommended expanding local health services and increasing the use of malaria vaccines to reduce the impact of disruptions caused by floods and cyclones.
The study warns that gains made in malaria control over the past two decades could be reversed without sustained funding and long-term planning.
