The world is watching as the shadow of the Iran and US blockade loomed over the Strait of Hormuz. For most individuals, it is a headline about geopolitical brinkmanship. For nations, it is a cold realisation of their economic fragility.
A few weeks ago, I called a friend—a capable intellectual and an economist, Dr Bravious Kahyoza—to get his view on my op-ed arguing that a Hormuz closure would have only a mild impact on Tanzania. He listened, paused, and then gently said it was “short-termist”. It’s fair: I knew it was a risky article, but I still think the jury is out. However, in that conversation, Bravious pointed out a fact I had overlooked—one that reveals a deeper structural issue: a large share, by some estimates 50 percent, of Tanzania’s oil imports come from India.
