Makongoro ex-president’s son who may become one

On Monday the son of the father of the Nation and Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, Makongoro announced his bid to succeed President Jakaya Kikwete as the United Republic of Tanzania sixth President.

Mr Makongoro, who is currently a member of East Africa Legislative Assembly (EALA), announced his plans to seek the ruling CCM nomination for the presidential seat in the October general election.

He joined a list of names of the ruling party cadres, who include former Prime Minister Mr Edward Lowassa, cabinet ministers Mr Stephen Wassira, Prof Mark Mwandosya, and Mwigulu Mwigulu Nchemba, to officially announce their candidature.

Current and former Prime Ministers Mizengo Pinda, Edward Lowassa and Fredrick Sumaye, cabinet ministers Bernard Membe, Samuel Sitta, Dr John Magufuli January Makamba and Lazaro Nyalandu along with various legislators who include Dr Hamis Kigwangala and William Ngeleja who had hinted that they will be in the race are yet to officially announce their candidature.

If Mr Makongoro bid to succeed President Jakaya Kikwete will be successful he wouldn’t the first son of the former President to become president.

Indeed Mr Makongoro, who was once Arusha urban Member of Parliament through opposition NCCR Mageuzi, wouldn’t be the first son of the founder of the nation to become president in Africa.

African political history indicates that six sons of the president have gone on to emulate their fathers by becoming their countries.

Three out of the seven Presidents or heads of state are sons of their countries founders who emulated their fathers.

They are Botswana president Ian Khama, former Zanzibar President Amani Abeid Karume, Kenya President Uhuru Kenyata and Mauritius Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam.

And if Mr Makongoro bid will be successful he will be taking over the country top office 30 years after his father Mwalimu Nyerere left office hence continuing the trend of Africa founders of the nations’ sons to take over years after their fathers had left office.

If he will be successful in his bid Mr Makongoro will become president after three presidents have assumed the office since his father.

History proves that there are no sons of Founders of African countries who have taken over the presidency immediately after their fathers left office.

Former Zanzibar President Amani Karume became president after 28 years since his father was assassinated while in Botswana, Khama was elected 27 years after his father Sir Seretse Khama left office, while in Kenya, Kenyatta was elected 34 years after his father Jomo Kenyatta left office, and, in Mauritius, Ramgoolam was elected 13 years after his father Seewoosagur Ramgoolam left office.

For that enough time had elapsed in which citizens exercised their democratic rights after assessing the impact and results of the father’s leadership and make an informed decision regarding the son.

However, according to the history some of former African presidents some of former presidents’ sons succeeded their father in taking over their country’s presidency.

They are the incumbent Togo President Faure Gnassingbe, Gabon President Ali Bongo Ondimba, Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila.

Mr Gnassingbe is the son and immediate successor of Togo’s fifth president—Gnassingbé Eyadema. Once serving his five years third Mr Gnassingbe family will have run Togo for 48 in the country’s history.

In the DRC, Kabila senior came to power in 2001 immediately following after the assassination of his father Laurent. When his term comes to an end in 2016 the Kabila family will rule DRC for almost 20 years.

Will Makongoro be able to emulate the Kenyattas?

If his bid will be unsuccessful Mr Makongoro won’t be the first son of the former head of state to fail in his first attempt. In 2002 the current Kenya President Kenyatta tried unsuccessfully to succeed his mentor Daniel Arap Moin when he was defeated by Mwai Kibaki.

We need not to go far to find another example as the Ambassador Ali Abeid Karume was defeated by far by the outgoing President Jakaya Kikwete in 2005 ruling party nomination.

However, some observers give Mr Makongoro an outside chance to win the CCM nominations. Those give Mr Makongo an outside chance argue that he is best placed to counter former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa’s power.

Other observers argue that Mr Makongoro will be in a better position to bear CCM flag in the presidential election should the party’s hierarchy opt against Mr Lowassa and foreign affairs and international affairs minister Bernard Membe-two of the front runners in the race for CCM Presidential ticket.

According to Mr Emmanuel Gideon, a Morogoro based lawyer and political pundit, since it will need a brave and courageous decision by CCM hierarchy to opt against Mr Lowassa in favour of Mr Membe or vice versa Mr Makongoro will act as a fall back candidate for the ruling party.

“Mr Lowassa is very powerful within the ruling party but there are those who fear if he will be nominated he will divide the party due to his record with regard to the Richmond scandal,” he said.

He added “this brings us to Mr Membe, who according to some sources is CCM the top hierarchy preferred candidate. But the top hierarchy knows better sidelining Mr Lowassa in favour of his rival Mr Membe will tear the party apart so this brings Mr Makongoro into the picture.”

Another perspective is that Mr Makongoro nomination to bear the party flag in October election will appease some of the Mwalimu Nyerere scholars such as the Butiku (Joseph), Warioba (Joseph) et al who for a longtime felt like being sidelined by the party.

Mr Makongoro agility in the crusade against corruption will play in his favour during the nomination argue Mr Salvatory Magafu, a political analyst based in Mwanza.

“If you look at the names which are tipped to succeed President Kikwete Mr Makongoro has a good track record when it comes to fighting corruption; you can remember he lost his position as CCM Mara region chairperson due to his stand against corruption,” said Mr Magafu.

-ENDS-