The Lowassa factor: How one defection redefined Tanzania’s electoral landscape

The former Prime Minister’s dramatic entry into the opposition ranks transformed a routine electoral contest into one of the most competitive general elections in Tanzania’s history. Mr Lowassa was no ordinary party member. A political heavyweight with deep roots in CCM and a strong reputation for grassroots mobilisation, he had long been seen as a potential heir to the presidency.

His departure from the party that had nurtured his rise—and his subsequent embrace by Chadema, the main opposition party—was a political earthquake whose tremors are still felt a decade later.

Sidelined in Dodoma: The political betrayal

The seeds of discontent were sown in July 2015, when CCM convened in Dodoma to select its presidential candidate for the upcoming general election.

With President Jakaya Kikwete stepping down after his constitutionally mandated two terms, the stage was set for fierce competition within the ruling party.

Mr Lowassa, then one of the most prominent figures in Tanzanian politics, was widely expected to clinch the party’s nomination.

But behind closed doors, the Central Committee of CCM had other plans. Despite his popularity and broad support within the party’s grassroots, Mr Lowassa was dropped from the shortlist of final contenders.

On that night the CCM’s Central Committee decided that Mr Lowassa and Bernard Member another blue-eyed boy of the regime were not good enough to fly the party’s flag.

The nomination instead went to a lesser-known figure: Dr John Pombe Magufuli, then minister for Works.

Several party stalwarts did not agree with the decision with some openly expressing their dissatisfaction on how the entire process had been conducted.

Sources close to the deliberations claimed that Lowassa’s 2008 resignation over the Richmond energy scandal had been revived as justification. Yet, political insiders widely believed that the move was orchestrated by party elites wary of Lowassa’s growing independence and his populist leanings. His ambition, charisma, and ability to galvanize the youth and middle class may have been too much for the conservative inner circle of CCM.

Crossing the aisle to Chadema

If CCM’s decision to sideline Lowassa was shocking, what followed was even more unexpected. Within days of being passed over, Lowassa publicly announced his resignation from the ruling party.

 Soon after, he appeared at a press conference alongside Chadema chairman Freeman Mbowe, declaring his intention to “bring real change” to Tanzania.

It was a jaw-dropping moment: a senior figure from the ruling establishment embracing the opposition. Even more astonishing was how quickly Chadema and the broader opposition coalition Ukawa (Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi) rallied behind him.

 Ukawa—comprised of Chadema, CUF, NCCR-Mageuzi, and NLD—immediately endorsed Lowassa as their joint presidential candidate.

Suddenly, Tanzania’s political map was redrawn. Rallies featuring Mr Lowassa and UKAWA leaders drew unprecedented crowds. In major urban centres—Dar es Salaam, Arusha, Mwanza, Mbeya—the momentum shifted palpably. For the first time in decades, CCM faced a credible threat not just in parliament but at State House.

The numbers that tell the story

On October 25, 2015, Tanzanians went to the polls amid heightened political fervour. The result: Dr. John Magufuli won with 58 percent of the vote—a significant victory, but also the narrowest margin ever recorded for a CCM presidential candidate.

Mr Lowassa, contesting his first election under a new political banner, secured 40 percent, translating to more than 6.07 million votes.

It was a performance no opposition figure had ever achieved.

The parliamentary results were just as striking. The opposition won nearly 80 seats in the National Assembly, a jump that significantly elevated Chadema’s visibility and positioned it as the official opposition in parliament.

For the first time, opposition voices gained critical mass in national discourse—both within the legislature and in the streets.

The fallout within Chadema

But Mr Lowassa’s entry into Chadema did not come without cost. One of the party’s most respected figures, Dr Wilbrod Slaa—the former Secretary General and 2010 presidential candidate—was deeply opposed to Mr Lowassa’s candidacy. Slaa viewed it as a betrayal of Chadema’s founding values and accused the party leadership of compromising principles for political expediency.

In a dramatic turn, Dr Slaa resigned from Chadema and announced his withdrawal from politics altogether. “I cannot serve in a party that welcomes someone whose record I have consistently opposed,” he reportedly said.

While Mr Slaa’s departure was a symbolic blow, the leadership opted to prioritise the larger strategic opportunity. Lowassa brought name recognition, financial muscle, and new constituencies—especially in regions where Chadema had previously struggled to gain ground. For many, this trade-off was justified in the broader fight against CCM’s monopoly.

A new political reality

Though Mr Lowassa ultimately did not win the presidency, his 2015 defection achieved something arguably more important: it ended the myth of CCM’s electoral invincibility. It demonstrated that, with the right alliances and momentum, the opposition could pose a serious challenge.

Moreover, it changed how future campaigns were run. CCM, shaken by the close shave, began consolidating its base with greater intensity.

Under Magufuli’s leadership, the party pivoted to a more centralised approach to governance, clamping down on dissent and tightening control over political expression.

Mr Lowassa’s gamble had long-term implications. He proved that Tanzanian politics could be fluid, that allegiances could shift, and that even the most established figures could defy the system.

In 2019, after four years in the opposition, he made a quiet return to CCM—stating a desire to support “national unity.” His comeback, however, was less dramatic than his exit, and many political observers saw it as a retreat rather than a resurgence.

Legacy of a political gambit

A decade later, the Lowassa defection remains a case study in how individual agency can reshape national politics. It was a moment that pulled the curtains back on Tanzania’s tightly managed political theatre and allowed the electorate to glimpse what real multiparty competition could look like.

It also redefined the opposition—not as a fragmented chorus of discontent, but as a unified force with the capacity to unsettle the status quo.

Even as the opposition landscape has since shifted—with new alliances, breakaways, and realignments—the 2015 election remains the high-water mark of what is possible when ambition, timing, and public sentiment align.

Whether seen as a bold stroke of political courage or an act of personal ambition, Mr Lowassa’s move in 2015 forever altered Tanzania’s electoral terrain.

It was a moment of possibility, of disruption, and of democratic energy.

It reminded Tanzanians—and CCM—that political power is never guaranteed, and that sometimes, the most consequential changes begin with a single, defiant step.