Ukraine isn’t ready for EU membership — the EU isn’t ready for it either

By Andrew Duff

The European Commission is busy drafting its formal opinion on Ukraine’s emergency bid to join the European Union.

While on the emotional level the bloc’s response to the application has been warm, when receiving the document, expected to land in June, the European Council must set compassion aside.

When it comes to the future of enlargement, leaders must be clearheaded and self-critical, as the opinion must rehearse what the EU’s official accession procedures are, and why they are necessary.

The surprise application from Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova is the right opportunity to finally drop the pretense that the EU will always admit new countries to membership when they claim to be ready — a fiction that has hampered positive developments in the Western Balkans for years and ended up with Turkey, a candidate since 1999, beyond the pale.

The main thrust of the Commission opinion will be on Ukraine’s ineligibility to be declared an accession country under present rules. Even before the Russian invasion, Ukraine was a very poor country, its GDP per capita below half that of Bulgaria. Since its 2014 association agreement with the EU progress has been slow, with the country’s integration into the single market stalling because it failed to meet EU norms of governance.

quick fix for Ukraine.

Doubtless the promise of eventual EU membership would be valuable for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but the last thing he needs now is to get lost in the undergrowth of the acquis Communautaire, the accumulated legislation, legal acts and court decisions that constitute the body of EU law.

Emerging from the conflict with Russia, Ukraine will likely have to manage high voltage nationalism combined with great impatience for European integration.

Wishful thinking and attenuated false hope from Brussels are not a good foundation for Ukraine’s recovery. Instead, the EU would do better to offer Kyiv something that carries real political benefits that can be promptly delivered.

Along those lines, the introduction of a new category of affiliate membership would enlarge the instruments at the EU’s disposal, helping shoulder its increasing responsibilities in the wider European neighborhood.

Affiliate member countries should be expected to respect the values on which the EU is founded (Article 2), as well as its stance in international affairs (Article 21), and they would commit to developing a privileged partnership with the union (Article 8). They would not be obliged, however, to sign up to the goals of political, economic and monetary union.

For Ukraine, affiliate membership would be an upgrade on its current association agreement, involving stronger functional links between Kyiv and the EU’s executive, legislative and judicial institutions. It should also include participation in Council qualified majority votes on any single-market regulation applicable to its affiliate status.

Most importantly, on the back of a favorable and imaginative Commission opinion, an affiliation treaty could be offered to Ukraine swiftly. And the concept of affiliate membership would then be codified and installed in the EU treaties at the time of their next (imminent) revision.

Andrew Duff is a former member of the European Parliament. His new book, “Constitutional Change in the European Union,” is to be published shortly by Palgrave.

Disclaimer: The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Citizen